March 16, 2010

Digging into odds vs Ranges using pokerstove.com

I wrote this January 5th this year on another site i write on, the Reefer Poker blog site.
I will be posting some of those over here.

My month/year is starting off a little slow so ive been trying to get back to the basics, one of the ways that I do this is analyze hands that im in with versus the range of my opponents. Some free software you should have and should download if dont have it is www.pokerstove.com.

At first glance, this looks basic and youll be like, well, how could I use this in a real world situation. Granted, alot of what this software does is give you detailed information, in hindsite. Well... that doesnt do you any good in the middle of a tourney. But.. what it can do is teach you, you also can make some charts to help yourself know the strength of your hand in real-time or use the model I designed below.

I use 4 different models of ranges, you should goto pokerstove and type in these percentages to see the hand ranges I am discussing.

A This is general range of player either limping or opening a pot, in pokerstove, it consists of approx the top 32.9% of all hands

B Loose raising range -- this could be used by first player entering pot from mid- late position in a 8-10 handed game, this range consists of approx the top 20.4% of all hands

C Early position raising hands, this range is for an early position raise in a 8-10 man game, primarily I am talking about tournaments with approx 20-30x blind structure, this range consists of approx the top 12.4% of all hands

D Lastly is your tight range, this range will usually be a reraise, all in shove, or bubble playable hand vs a raise, this range consists of approx the top 4.2% of all hands.

Now.. what you should do is start to look at hands that you could have and how would they play against these ranges. Your next step in a tourney when entering a pot, raising into a pot, reraising or moving all in versus an opponent is trying to put them on one of these 4 ranges of hands. You then should be analyzing how they play to give you a better idea of what ranges they already play and then determine the situation in the game and which they might be on. Then, you analyze your hand strength based on that range. The idea is to try to get your money in with the best of most times.. You cant always win, but if you're consistently getting your money in with the best of it, youll win alot more. Ill give some samples below and then you can go on and do your own.


opponents projected range-> A 32.9% B 20.4% C 12.4% D 4.2%

My hand - percent equity
78suited * 37.9% 36.7% 34.8% 27.7%
55 49.1% 45.7% 42.7% 31.5%
1010 64.4% 55.2% 54.2% 41.2%
A6 ** 47.3% 42.7% 37.2% 27.1%
AJ 59.6% 55.57 48.7% 31.2%
KQ 52.9% 49.4% 43.1% 31.2%
AQ 61.9% 58.9% 54.1% 34.2%
AK 64.7% 62.5% 59.9% 43.8%
AA 84.9% 84.5% 84.6% 82.8%

* includes other suited connectors from 2-3s to 9-10suited
** would also include other A-rag hands like A2-A8


Try to put this to use when you're looking at your hand in different areas of the tourney and wondering where you are vs other players in the hand. This will help you play "theoretically" better poker, what I mean by that is playing your hand perfectly as if you knew what the other player was holding. PART 2 ---------------------------------------------------

HAving a conversation about this with a buddy and I came up with some more scenarios...
Lets say youre in a tourney... youre either huge stacked or maybe pretty shortacked and you need to gamble to tripleup to get back in for a run... So a mid position raisers goes all in, we will give him the B range of 20.4% of the best hands.. so youre on the small blind, all of the sudden the button goes all in also for the same chips.. We assume he has a better hand range and we will give him a range of C the top 12.4% of hands. You could either have a small, stack wanting to triple, medium stack in which case youre going to have to consider this calling option alot more carefully, or possibly have them both covered by 3-1, in which case you might consider calling to knock them both out. S0.. we will run the same hands above, but we will check our equity vs both of these opponents with the same group of hands.



Your pot equity in a 3 handed all-in vs a B level estimated range and a C level estimated range with the following hands...

So youre over 50% chance to lose the hand in the sitation with all of these but AA, but youre also 26% to win the hand with even a suited connector.. worth the consideration in some situations. 78s 26.9%
55 29.5%
1010 38.4%
A6 23.7%
AJ 32.2% AQ 36.8%
AK 41.9%
AA 73.6%

Knowledge is power, odds and what you know and how you use them are a huge part of this game, consider them carefully in your decision making.

You should consider printing this out so you start to understand your equity vs different ranges of hands, and players. Very good stuff if i dont say so myself.


chuck
wizrdmickey
wizardmickey33 yahoo IM
@wizardmickey twitter

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