I see so many players jam their stacks in with flush and straight draws and so I wanted to discuss some situations to look at and think about during these hands.
All of these odds below are using, www.pokerstove.com
One very important concept I try to play by and also teach to students is that you need to
A- put your opponent on a hand of some sort, and
B- understand what your odds are to actually win the hand
If you just have a suited connector and you flop a flush draw, and the opponent is betting heavy at you. You're getting horrible odds to shove and hope you hit.
What you want to look for are over cards, str8 draws to go with your flush draws, etc.
here's some examples.
player A raises 4x, you call with 78d
FLOP is 3d10cKd Player A bets 3/4 pot.
What should you think about, well, first What does he have, if he hit that flop he most likely has KJ, KQ, AK, or AA. If not, lets say his range is the top 12.7% of hands
Your odds are only 38.7% against any of that range if he calls you.
Now, if he does have K10-AK, KK, AA or even 33 or 1010 and he does get all in with you your odds are only 35.6% of hitting the flush to win. do you see what I am saying here? Don't burn your whole stack shoving in in this spot.
Lets look at two other scenarios
Same flop on both of these but you have
Hand 1 JQd - you flopped an open ended str8 draw and flush draw, even if he is holding the KT+, KK or AA here, youre still an exact 50% coin flip. If he has the top 12.7% hand range here you re a strong favorite of 56.6% all in vs any hand.
Hand 2 AJd - You flopped a str8 draw with a gutshot str8 and an over to the board
You're a 55.3% favorite over top 12.7% of hands here, and still a strong 45.5% to a top hand like AK, KK, AA or KQ.
So.. these are why I want you to start to think about your draws in more detail. Why waste your whole stack. If you have position, and your opponent gives you odds to call the flop, call and see what happens, he might check to you on the turn in which case you can bet and take it down, or he might shoot another small bet and allow you to see a cheap river. You also should consider if he will pay you off and for how much on the river if that diamond hits. if you are calling more percentage of the pot than your odds to hit are, and he doesn't pay you off for at least half of the pot when u do hit, then the EV=Expected Value of making this move over the long term are bad. Just because you hit a strong draw doesn't mean you HAVE to play, if he is betting pot sized bets to you which take up a large portion of your stack, wait for a better spot.
Hope these examples open up your thinking for playing your draws
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5 comments:
You should talk about the merits of fold equity and semibluffing people off hands that have a hard time calling those flops as well. What about that KT3dd flop when you raise or shove against someone holding QQ/JJ/99/AT/AQ/AJ/88/bluffs? Also, you're probably better off gambling and shoving draws if this is during the rebuy to get max value when you hit, and if you don't, don't cry, rebuy!
Shoving w flush draw and calling w flush draw are two different things...
Rebuy tourneys and freezout tourneys are different things as well.
This post was meant to show the odds and help people realize that overplaying your flush draws will make you a losing player in a long run.
I agree, It's always good to bluff the bluffer. Unless you run into higher flush draw.
People tend to overplay their flush draws.
My advice- never overplay your flush draw unless you will have the nuts after you catch it. That's the worst when you catch you flush just to get beat by higher flush...
of course there are situations you need to take risks even with low flush draws, but in general, they might get you in trouble more often than you will win the pot...
totally agree, I see alot of guys late in tourneys, say they have middle suited connector, check the flop, wait for the original bettor to bet and then shove over the top. I think its a bad play, either be the frst one in with a bet, dont get overly involved here. Stack sizes have alot to do with it too. If youre huge or small sometimes u got to make a move but very situational.
hey Chuck,
Got a hand for you. Mid tourn 3 bet J10 diamonds 2 callers flop k73 one diamond C bet made 1 call turn Q diamonds bet 1/2 pot guy shoves I played the hand give me your opinion.... (btw didnt need vaseline jar, won the deepstack rofl)
Tiltje -
ill write about this on my blog today, but I need more info.. stack sizes/blinds etc.
ill estimate for writing purposes.
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