Reprinting to LTUs blog from mine, this is some interesting #'s I thought.
I personally love it when I see a suited connector, for this example we will use 89 suited in my hand. I get a tingly feeling inside, because I know something exciting could happen. I might get in this hand and catch a straight, 2 pair, flush, OR, a flush draw with decisions to make, or maybe even just a pair and feel like I have the best of it. Either way, it gets my blood pumping
I wanted to talk about some recent hands I've played and seen, why, what the odds were.
First 89hearts, I had 2250 chips left in the last hand before the break in a 1500freezeout, blinds were 75/150. Big stack on the button with around 10000, raised into my BB. I reshoved my stack in here. Why? Well, first, I was shortstacked, if I am going to go out, Id rather do it before the break. That might now be the best way to look at it, but id rather double up or go out before the break if possible. Also, I figured that the big stack could have a very wide range of hands in this spot stealing on the button. So I had what i thought was about 3 in 5 fold equity in this spot or about 60% that he would fold. If I got called, I knew my odds. I put this player on a wide range of top 40% or so of hands, again this range, my 89suited is about 40.1%.so all in all, I have about 5 out of 10 chance that I will win this hand either by a pf fold, or a showdown win. In this case, he was on the high side of his range with AK and called, but, I flopped and 8 and no more help and I won the hand. I don't suggest this kind of recklessness with a medium or average stack, you re looking for better chances to get your money in, but when you re short in this spot its a good enough hand to shove light.
2nd hand I saw was another player at my table but I like how he played the hand.
guy had about 10000 chips, and sitting on the BB, for 200 chips, with 89clubs, late position shortstack with 1400 shoves it all in. This is another spot i don't mind a call. You're not getting the best of odds in this spot but you got to open up and take some chances here and the range on this late position all in was wide. Again, we will say top 40% of hands. With the odds that I plugged in, he had about a 39% equity in this hand, and figure he has 200 in the pot already, now he is calling 1200 to win a pot worth about 3100 in this spot that's about 38.7%. Right on the number but.. when you re talking about 12% of your chips for to pickup 31% I am ok with that move. Anyway, the hand came down AJ8 with 2 clubs. So automatically thought the 89 was going to win here even though he might be a little behind still, he was 41% after the flop, but the turn was an 8spades and now he was 90.9%.
Lastly, this didn't happen today, but I wanted to talk about open shoving with 89suited. Now, no reason to ever do this unless the Blinds are decent, prob antes kicked in as well. I also wouldn't do this if your "M" =((your stack)/(sb,bb,+ante))is more than 5, unless its more than 15-20 and the BB is less than 5.
Example, blinds are 200/400 and ante is 400, in this case that equals 1000 chips in the blinds and antes. So you divide your stac by 1000, if you have 5000 or less and your M is 5 or less, than youre in danger zone. Its not a bad move to move in, and try to pickup 20% of your chip stack. In this case vs a Random hand, your pot equity is 51.4%, now if you get called, your equity is going to be alot lower, he will put you on top 30-40% of hands so could call you pretty wide. I would say top 20%. So now, your equity is going to be more like 36.5. All in all, I like your chances, 51% over random, only getting called with top 20% of hands and still winning that 35.5%. So the final # would be 1 in 5 call you, and about 3 of 5 win at showdown if called. So your edge here is 6 of 10 (60%) chance of a fold or a showdown win.
note.. as mentioned above if you have over 15 or so M and the BB has less than 5, so if you have 15+ and Bb has less than 5000, you can make this move profitably in this spot as well. More on "M" zones in another article.
Thanks for reading, hope to hear your opinions here
@Wizardmickey twitter
wizardmickey@yahoo.com, email and IM
April 21, 2010
I'm back
That's right, bitches....
Didn't feel like typing anything and sharing my stories for that long. Sorry.
Ok, here we go. I arrived to freaking Biloxi airport and I thought I landed on a desert island right after zombies ate all the humans. The freaking airport was so empty. Two cab drivers outside and couple airport employees wondering around. And it was around 7 pm.. Coming from Chicago Airport it was kinda little shock. The airport is smaller than Chicago bus station I think :).
Anyway, after realizing that there were no zombies around, I went to get my bags. Yeah right. Even we had 20 passengers on the plane Delta Airlines managed to lose my bag. Awesome. And Delta charges $25 per bag. WTF?
So I get a cab to Beau Rivage. One bum cab driver tried to rip me off, but I wasn't that stupid so he could get me that easy. The red light was when I asked him how much was to get to Beau. He said "I'll take you there for $35. And that's a bargain for you." I was like really? Somebody inside said that it's $30 for a trip to that hotel. Of course, I bluffed, I even didn't ask anyone inside how much was it... He started stutter and I realized that I better try another cab. I went to the second one and asked, will you take to Beau for $30. That guys was like- sure, it's a flat rate to Biloxi. LOL. That's some good stuff.
Beau Rivage is really nice hotel. Rooms are very nice, staff is very helpful and very friendly. One thing to remember- they charge stupid Resort fee $13 per day and they don't really announce it when you are booking a room. Also, the internet is $13 per day and you have to buy your OWN cord. How stupid is that? I have like 20 in my house and I have to buy one to get hooked up to internet there. Anyway, I bought one for $10 and of course forgot it and left in the room after I checked out.
For those who will travel there, call hotel and ask for poker rate. It's pretty good deal, but you ahve to play 5 or more hours I think to get that rate. nobody really checked how many hours I played and I think I played less than that, but I still was charged only poker rate.
Ok, the tournaments. Played in a few. The lower buy ins are full of donks. busted out with 1010 vs gut shot all in on flop. There was a Jack on flop, but for some reason I thought the guy was bluffing. Read was good, but unfortunately not very lucky. Same guy busted out 5 ppl before me with 2 or 3 outer all ins. Every time caught a miracle card or smth like runner runner flush. I wonder how far did he go...
Played in sats to get a seat to Main Event. Got the seat, but only on a third try. better than nothing though.
Main Event. Around 200 ppl only. To make long story short, busted like in a third hour.
Didn't play too many hands, was pretty much observing who will double me up. Spotted two total donks at the table. Crazy lose and any two were good to play for them. Ironically one of the donks actually was the reason why I busted out.
I open up in EP w QQ. Donk calls. Everybody folds. I'm happy to have him in the hand and just hope we dont hit any over cards on flop.
Flop 223. Not a bad flop, but you never know with an idiot, maybe he has A2 or smth like that. I bet, he min raises me. Interesting raise, but all his raises are minraises from the plays before, so i pretty much hope he has some overpair lower than QQ Or simply bluffing with overcards. I flat.
Turn 6. decide to play a little bit cautiously and not to bust out that early. I check, he bets more than half of my stack. Hell, I'm not folding my QQ, but I can't just call. I shove all in.
Insta call.
He jumps up, like he freaking got me and I pretty much think that's has to be at least one deuce in his hand. He flips 1010. I look at the board and I can't believe there is no 10 on the board and he is that happy. I flip QQ and pretty much ready to scoop my pot.
River 10. Thank you very much and have a nice day. Bitch slapped.
The rest fo the trip was pretty fun. A lot of poker. However the cash games were not that easy...Everyone there pretty much locals, know each others kids names and full life stories :) Every drunk tourist was pretty much eaten alive. You won't get much money from regulars and there are not enough tourists....
So to make it more interesting I went to play roulette. And I freaking owned that thing. It was so much fun. Played like 3 days in a row and always was leaving with more money than I bought in for. Sad to say, but I think I made more money on roulette than playing poker...I still have $400 in chips, bcs I didnt have time to cash them out... I think I'm going to WSOP Circuit Event in nearby IP Hotel Casino next week and maybe I will have to drive to Beau just to cash them in....
So yeah, I'm back, but I might go to Biloxi soon enough.... There is a WSOP Circuit Event in Imperial Palace and there will be some fun tourneys. I think the most fun tourney - two or three men team Event. We will see, maybe I will play in that one ... There was one guy who I met at the cash poker table and he said he would like to play in that one and asked me if I would play with him. He is a good player and maybe we will play if we both get there...Wanted to play in that tourney with some of my friends, but they are waiting for WSOP in Vegas and want to save some money for these tourneys...
Not really playing online, or if playing, playing like shit. Won only one tourney since I got back, but I guess I played only like 10... I don't think I will even make it to Top 100 on MTT Leader board. haha. That's funny and sad at the same time.
What a great changes on Merge network!!! Crazy overlays, nice tourneys schedule. Awesome stuff, just I'm not in playing poker online mood since i came back... I noticed, I don't have that much patience after I come back from my live Event trips...Gotta fix that leak...
That's it for now...
Didn't feel like typing anything and sharing my stories for that long. Sorry.
Ok, here we go. I arrived to freaking Biloxi airport and I thought I landed on a desert island right after zombies ate all the humans. The freaking airport was so empty. Two cab drivers outside and couple airport employees wondering around. And it was around 7 pm.. Coming from Chicago Airport it was kinda little shock. The airport is smaller than Chicago bus station I think :).
Anyway, after realizing that there were no zombies around, I went to get my bags. Yeah right. Even we had 20 passengers on the plane Delta Airlines managed to lose my bag. Awesome. And Delta charges $25 per bag. WTF?
So I get a cab to Beau Rivage. One bum cab driver tried to rip me off, but I wasn't that stupid so he could get me that easy. The red light was when I asked him how much was to get to Beau. He said "I'll take you there for $35. And that's a bargain for you." I was like really? Somebody inside said that it's $30 for a trip to that hotel. Of course, I bluffed, I even didn't ask anyone inside how much was it... He started stutter and I realized that I better try another cab. I went to the second one and asked, will you take to Beau for $30. That guys was like- sure, it's a flat rate to Biloxi. LOL. That's some good stuff.
Beau Rivage is really nice hotel. Rooms are very nice, staff is very helpful and very friendly. One thing to remember- they charge stupid Resort fee $13 per day and they don't really announce it when you are booking a room. Also, the internet is $13 per day and you have to buy your OWN cord. How stupid is that? I have like 20 in my house and I have to buy one to get hooked up to internet there. Anyway, I bought one for $10 and of course forgot it and left in the room after I checked out.
For those who will travel there, call hotel and ask for poker rate. It's pretty good deal, but you ahve to play 5 or more hours I think to get that rate. nobody really checked how many hours I played and I think I played less than that, but I still was charged only poker rate.
Ok, the tournaments. Played in a few. The lower buy ins are full of donks. busted out with 1010 vs gut shot all in on flop. There was a Jack on flop, but for some reason I thought the guy was bluffing. Read was good, but unfortunately not very lucky. Same guy busted out 5 ppl before me with 2 or 3 outer all ins. Every time caught a miracle card or smth like runner runner flush. I wonder how far did he go...
Played in sats to get a seat to Main Event. Got the seat, but only on a third try. better than nothing though.
Main Event. Around 200 ppl only. To make long story short, busted like in a third hour.
Didn't play too many hands, was pretty much observing who will double me up. Spotted two total donks at the table. Crazy lose and any two were good to play for them. Ironically one of the donks actually was the reason why I busted out.
I open up in EP w QQ. Donk calls. Everybody folds. I'm happy to have him in the hand and just hope we dont hit any over cards on flop.
Flop 223. Not a bad flop, but you never know with an idiot, maybe he has A2 or smth like that. I bet, he min raises me. Interesting raise, but all his raises are minraises from the plays before, so i pretty much hope he has some overpair lower than QQ Or simply bluffing with overcards. I flat.
Turn 6. decide to play a little bit cautiously and not to bust out that early. I check, he bets more than half of my stack. Hell, I'm not folding my QQ, but I can't just call. I shove all in.
Insta call.
He jumps up, like he freaking got me and I pretty much think that's has to be at least one deuce in his hand. He flips 1010. I look at the board and I can't believe there is no 10 on the board and he is that happy. I flip QQ and pretty much ready to scoop my pot.
River 10. Thank you very much and have a nice day. Bitch slapped.
The rest fo the trip was pretty fun. A lot of poker. However the cash games were not that easy...Everyone there pretty much locals, know each others kids names and full life stories :) Every drunk tourist was pretty much eaten alive. You won't get much money from regulars and there are not enough tourists....
So to make it more interesting I went to play roulette. And I freaking owned that thing. It was so much fun. Played like 3 days in a row and always was leaving with more money than I bought in for. Sad to say, but I think I made more money on roulette than playing poker...I still have $400 in chips, bcs I didnt have time to cash them out... I think I'm going to WSOP Circuit Event in nearby IP Hotel Casino next week and maybe I will have to drive to Beau just to cash them in....
So yeah, I'm back, but I might go to Biloxi soon enough.... There is a WSOP Circuit Event in Imperial Palace and there will be some fun tourneys. I think the most fun tourney - two or three men team Event. We will see, maybe I will play in that one ... There was one guy who I met at the cash poker table and he said he would like to play in that one and asked me if I would play with him. He is a good player and maybe we will play if we both get there...Wanted to play in that tourney with some of my friends, but they are waiting for WSOP in Vegas and want to save some money for these tourneys...
Not really playing online, or if playing, playing like shit. Won only one tourney since I got back, but I guess I played only like 10... I don't think I will even make it to Top 100 on MTT Leader board. haha. That's funny and sad at the same time.
What a great changes on Merge network!!! Crazy overlays, nice tourneys schedule. Awesome stuff, just I'm not in playing poker online mood since i came back... I noticed, I don't have that much patience after I come back from my live Event trips...Gotta fix that leak...
That's it for now...
April 13, 2010
Tiltje asked me to analyze a hand
Here's what he gave me, i need more info on position, stack sizes etc, but I made up some of my own for analyzation purposes on my blog site. Some nice scenarios here.
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Tiltje wrote:
Got a hand for you. Mid tourn 3 bet J10 diamonds 2 callers flop k73 one diamond C bet made 1 call turn Q diamonds bet 1/2 pot guy shoves I played the hand give me your opinion....
My analysis:
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
Like to hear more about what you guys think of this
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Tiltje wrote:
Got a hand for you. Mid tourn 3 bet J10 diamonds 2 callers flop k73 one diamond C bet made 1 call turn Q diamonds bet 1/2 pot guy shoves I played the hand give me your opinion....
My analysis:
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
Like to hear more about what you guys think of this
50K guar Changes
The sunday 50K on our site is now a freezeout, you can buyin for just 109.00 and no addons or rebuys. Should be some nice overlays depending on the new traffic coming from the new sites joining the merge network this week.
also, some decent sattelites in the SNG, then Sattelite tab, buyin for 550 pts or 11.00, first place is 109 seat and free 11 sat for 2nd.
In my opinion, sattelites are now alot more beneficial for this trney, before you could sattelite in but u still had to at least addon to give yourself a shot. Now you dont.
Wiz
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
also, some decent sattelites in the SNG, then Sattelite tab, buyin for 550 pts or 11.00, first place is 109 seat and free 11 sat for 2nd.
In my opinion, sattelites are now alot more beneficial for this trney, before you could sattelite in but u still had to at least addon to give yourself a shot. Now you dont.
Wiz
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
April 10, 2010
Playing and Folding KQ
I've got a new blog of my own where I posted this article today, I thought I would post it here on LTU's site as well. If you want to see my other posts, i can be found at:
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
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Overplaying QK is a big pet Peave of mine, players who do it are rarely getting their money in good. I ran some analysis of that hand vs some ranges and I want to share them with you to help you think about your play with this hand. Don't get me wrong, QK is a top hand, BUT.. vs the ranges that want to play big or all in pots, its a horribly dominated hand.
Here's some #'s vs the top 10% of hands, QK holds 39% equity.
Vs the top 5% of hands which are the one that REALLY want to get all in and play an all in pot, you have a 30% hand equity. You are dominated by 55% of those hands which mean you are 22.9% equity vs 6 of the 11 top 5% of hands. This is why QK is a horrible hand vs a raise.
In all reality, consider the hand ranges that people want to shove with, can you think of ANY that you are ahead of? I Can think of 1... KJ. other than that, youre a slight underdog to any pair, any Ace, and dominated by AK, AQ, AA KK QQ. Yuck. I like to get my money in good.
When is this hand good to play, or get it all in with?
1- small stack shoves and youre sitting there with a big stack 4-5x the small stacks size,
2- youre the first one in from late pos with either a large stack or small stack and want to pickup the blinds
Other than that
I use it when I am the first one in from late pos, just picking up blinds, but not intending to call an ALLIN bet.
Otherwise, I dont have whole lot of use for this dominated hand, often times if you flop 2 pair, youre facing a str8 or str8 draw, just so many ways for it to get you in trouble. Try to shy from playing big pots with this crack hand. Youre rarely ahead and youll just get snapped off and be wondering what you were thinking getting your money in with that hand.
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
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Overplaying QK is a big pet Peave of mine, players who do it are rarely getting their money in good. I ran some analysis of that hand vs some ranges and I want to share them with you to help you think about your play with this hand. Don't get me wrong, QK is a top hand, BUT.. vs the ranges that want to play big or all in pots, its a horribly dominated hand.
Here's some #'s vs the top 10% of hands, QK holds 39% equity.
Vs the top 5% of hands which are the one that REALLY want to get all in and play an all in pot, you have a 30% hand equity. You are dominated by 55% of those hands which mean you are 22.9% equity vs 6 of the 11 top 5% of hands. This is why QK is a horrible hand vs a raise.
In all reality, consider the hand ranges that people want to shove with, can you think of ANY that you are ahead of? I Can think of 1... KJ. other than that, youre a slight underdog to any pair, any Ace, and dominated by AK, AQ, AA KK QQ. Yuck. I like to get my money in good.
When is this hand good to play, or get it all in with?
1- small stack shoves and youre sitting there with a big stack 4-5x the small stacks size,
2- youre the first one in from late pos with either a large stack or small stack and want to pickup the blinds
Other than that
I use it when I am the first one in from late pos, just picking up blinds, but not intending to call an ALLIN bet.
Otherwise, I dont have whole lot of use for this dominated hand, often times if you flop 2 pair, youre facing a str8 or str8 draw, just so many ways for it to get you in trouble. Try to shy from playing big pots with this crack hand. Youre rarely ahead and youll just get snapped off and be wondering what you were thinking getting your money in with that hand.
April 7, 2010
New Site
Guys, in case youre looking for me on merge, My new player name is wizardmickey1, I am now at a new site on the network, my previous skin had to stop offering all of the guaranteed tourneys because their cost was too much covering their share of the overlays. so I switched
I wont promote that site, here on LTU's site,and I will be continuing to write some things over here with LTU, I also have my own blog spot now at:
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
if you want to follow that also, youre welcome to.
There, I'll continue to write additional items, as well as promote myself a little more.
Wiz
I wont promote that site, here on LTU's site,and I will be continuing to write some things over here with LTU, I also have my own blog spot now at:
http://wizardmickey-poker.blogspot.com/
if you want to follow that also, youre welcome to.
There, I'll continue to write additional items, as well as promote myself a little more.
Wiz
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