March 29, 2010
Drawing vs Ranges/Odds
All of these odds below are using, www.pokerstove.com
One very important concept I try to play by and also teach to students is that you need to
A- put your opponent on a hand of some sort, and
B- understand what your odds are to actually win the hand
If you just have a suited connector and you flop a flush draw, and the opponent is betting heavy at you. You're getting horrible odds to shove and hope you hit.
What you want to look for are over cards, str8 draws to go with your flush draws, etc.
here's some examples.
player A raises 4x, you call with 78d
FLOP is 3d10cKd Player A bets 3/4 pot.
What should you think about, well, first What does he have, if he hit that flop he most likely has KJ, KQ, AK, or AA. If not, lets say his range is the top 12.7% of hands
Your odds are only 38.7% against any of that range if he calls you.
Now, if he does have K10-AK, KK, AA or even 33 or 1010 and he does get all in with you your odds are only 35.6% of hitting the flush to win. do you see what I am saying here? Don't burn your whole stack shoving in in this spot.
Lets look at two other scenarios
Same flop on both of these but you have
Hand 1 JQd - you flopped an open ended str8 draw and flush draw, even if he is holding the KT+, KK or AA here, youre still an exact 50% coin flip. If he has the top 12.7% hand range here you re a strong favorite of 56.6% all in vs any hand.
Hand 2 AJd - You flopped a str8 draw with a gutshot str8 and an over to the board
You're a 55.3% favorite over top 12.7% of hands here, and still a strong 45.5% to a top hand like AK, KK, AA or KQ.
So.. these are why I want you to start to think about your draws in more detail. Why waste your whole stack. If you have position, and your opponent gives you odds to call the flop, call and see what happens, he might check to you on the turn in which case you can bet and take it down, or he might shoot another small bet and allow you to see a cheap river. You also should consider if he will pay you off and for how much on the river if that diamond hits. if you are calling more percentage of the pot than your odds to hit are, and he doesn't pay you off for at least half of the pot when u do hit, then the EV=Expected Value of making this move over the long term are bad. Just because you hit a strong draw doesn't mean you HAVE to play, if he is betting pot sized bets to you which take up a large portion of your stack, wait for a better spot.
Hope these examples open up your thinking for playing your draws
twitter @ wizardmickey
yahoo IM wizardmickey33
Notetaking on players....
When you take notes, you want to put information in there that will help you everytime you see them. If you just say, well "this guy is a bluffer" that doesnt really help you because next time you play him, he might not be bluffing. You need to take the time to give yourself more context of the situation, when does he bluff? Was it a continuation bet? Did he fire 2-3 bullets? or did he stop betting when he got called. This is much more valuable information.
Also: When you see a player playing from early position, try to see a showdown or go back and look at the hand history. What was he playing under the gun, was it A6 offsuit or some junk like that, or 78 suited or nonstuied, this will give you an idea of what this guy's range is from early position and it will give you a better idea of how he plays.
Lastly, its always good to take a look at sharkscope or something and put notes about wether he is a winning player or not.
Wizrdmickey33
twitter @wizardmickey
Yahoo IM wizardmickey
March 25, 2010
Rolling through a bad run
Haven't been playing as much online as some, haven't been playing optimally. I have been reading a ton of new material and I feel like I am in between styles a little. I guess you could compare it to changing your golf swing, kind of messes you up for a while. I am finishing up this ebook I bought about 6man 1-2NL, by Ed Miller. The most expensive book I've ever bought, over 100.00 for an Ebook.. we will see if it pays off. Ha. I never really had a problem spending any amount of money on a good poker book generally, it pays off in the long run, something in there will make 30-50- or 100 dollar for you at some point. This one in particular has alot of "situational" poker which is nice, a little different than alot of the purely mathematical or theoretical books out there.
I also have a 13month old, I have him about 50% of the time and he is my life so at his age, its hard for me to concentrate as hard on poker because if he is here he is all over, and getting into any and everything possible. His sleeping habits are not as good as I would like right now so, naps, bedtimes, are all crazy.
But with all of that said, I want to get back to doing some coaching. I need to wait until I pull through this rough run that I have been in most of this year so far and when I feel more confident about my own playing then I'll be happy to look at some hand histories and help coach some players through their tough times. It happens to everyone. I think if I can come out of this strong then I will be a better player for it.
Anyway, more to come soon. I have some material that I have posted on my other site and I'll be moving it over here piece by piece.
March 24, 2010
Not even funny anymore...
Busted from 4 tourneys with dominating hands.
1. KK vs 44. River 4.
2. QQ vs 88. Flop 8
3. In Deepstack QK killed by JK prelop. Leaving me really short...
4. AJ vs QJ preflop. Flop A10rag. River K.
The only tourney won - DS sat. However only after a guy caught 1 outer w 66 vs my KK. The other guy folded and showed A6. Flop hit 6, but somehow I won with rivered flush.
Whoever is working with woodoo doll against me, yeah it works.
March 23, 2010
Sick day
Busted out against 3 outer 3 times.
Lost w flopped set all in against runner runner straight. All in on flop.
Lost w flopped set all in against rivered bigger set. All in on flop.
Lost w flopped set all in against against rivered gut shot straight. All in on turn.
Lost w 1010 against vs 87. Busted out from tourney. All in pre flop.
Lost w flopped set against another flopped set.
Have no idea how made to money in $2250 after overcoming two sick suckouts posted above. However lost with another sick one...Busted 4th in that one w Q10. Flop Q52. Guy had 89. Turn 10, River J.
Awesome
March 21, 2010
$25.200.000.00. Sounds good, doesn't it? Part 1
For those, who just want to skim through the story- I will play dumb idiot until this guy quits. We will see how long he will try to convince me to give my info to him.
Ok, here is the letter from this email address rufaisai@live.fr
"Dear friend
I am Mr.Sanusi Rufai, the audit and account director in African development Bank BurkinaHundred Thousand united state dollars ($25.200.000.00). The account holder suddenly passed away 26th december 2003 plane crash benin republic.left no beneficiary who would be entitled to the receipt of these fund.
For this reason, i have found it expedient to transfer this fund to a trustworthy individual with capacity to act as foreign business partner. Upon the transfer of this fund in your account, you will take 40% as your share from the total fund, 10% will be used as the expense incur during the process of the transfer to your account and 50% will be for me.
Please if you are really sure you can handle this project,i required your contact informtion for more discussion to commence the transaction.
Full Name
Telephone Number
passport copy
country, state city.
I am looking forward to read from you soon Faso.Thus i humbly request your kind assistance to claim Twenty-five Million Two"
It's not the first time I get these freaking stupid emails from some idiots who think they will find bigger idiots than themselves, but since I had pretty bad week, I wanted to have some entertainment out of this.
So, I replied to the email saying how awesome it is and how I can get my money.
The idiot on the other end couldn't believe he finally found a bigger idiot than himself.Of course I got a reply within a few hours with all instructions how I should send them all my info, passport copy, bank account number and all the other good stuff. Long email with all instructions how basically hand all your life savings on a platter to some bum sitting somewhere in Africa. Please note that he says that this is no illegal action and it's not breaking any law in Burkina Faso. Freaking hilarious. Yeah, maybe because they don't have any laws. LOL
"Thanks for your mail which have been noted. In view of this, I quite admire your sincere over this transaction, however, is just to make you truly understand why I contact you is because the statistic of the transaction required a foreigner hence Mr. John korovo is a foreigner too.
This is fact that i had to contact you via your email as the urgency of the transaction is required. if not that i have to stay back here as to ensure an immediate and smooth transfer of this funds, but left for me alone, that will not be necessary, hence because of the policy of the bank that states that after five or six years of the demise of the deceased and his or her relative fails to appear, the funds is bound to go into the bank treasury as unclaimed bills, and this is why i want you to act fast by complying with me.
This is the step as the next of kin so the bank can accord you the recognition and have the fund transferred into your account for us to share as I told you on percentage levels. Send the letter which i wil compose for you to the bank so that the bank will issue you application form to apply as the next of kin to the deceased customer.
As you have been informed my privous email, i will like you to understand that this transaction is 100% risk free transaction, there is no ilegal act or violeting any law here in Burkina Faso.
since the Late Mr. John korovo open this account, he did not decleard or mention any of his relation over this fund and from my letest investigation today, all his Next of kin who are imposition to claim this money died along with him at the crash living anybody behand.
So with this regard, your applying over this fund is unquestionable,and everything is going to be legal concepts of this bank and i am going to provide you all the legal document qualifying you as the real beneficiary /next of kin to the decease customer,
finnaly, i will like to inform you that all the arrangment to transfere fund into your behalf has been made and once this application has been arrive to this this department, i am going to used my office to instruct the remmitance to release this fund into your account immediately.here is my staff ID card to enable you know the sincere of this transaction, you can call me with this number below.NO:00226 78 24 06 28
waiting to hear from you,
REGARDS "
I replied that it's very confusing and can he please explain me how to get my money ASAP.
Sure enough, guy sent another email
"What I want you to do is to send this letter below to the bank, and the bank will issue you the application from to fill, just follow my intrusion, and what ever you receive from the bank kindly forward it to me so I can advice you on what to do to avoid any mistake from your side ,you can call me on my phone number 00226 7824 0628 for more discausion.am weiting to here from you before i close from office today,
Regards
Rufai Sanusi.
COPY THIS AND SEND TO BANK
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
ATTN: MR. MICHEAL IWA
THE DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS
FOREIGN REMITTANCE DIVISION
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
OUAGADOUGOU BURKINA-FASO
FAX :(00226)50-42-00-31
EMAIL:( adbbankbf@accountant.com)
LETTER AS NEXT OF KIN TO ACCOUNT HOLDER N0 :$ 0036101101,ROUTING NO:91002211,
Dear Sir, I wish to apply as next of kin to my late business partner with ( MR JOHN KROVO.) who died on december 26th December 2003 plane crash in Benin .
I am putting claim over his balance of ($25.200,000 million dollars)in account NO:0036101101,ROUTING NO:91002211, we have been business associates in exportation and buying of Gold and Diamond the text of application form which I will fill in my bank details where the money will be remitted. I also apologise for the delayed in demanding for the text of application was due to unforeseen circumstances since my business partners death.
Wishing my application will be given an urgent attention, as I wish the balance be released, and transferred into my account .
Accept my apology for the late application, it was due to some logistic problems, which has been just settled.
Thanking you for your anticipated co-operation .
Yours Sincerely "
I sent the email saying that I wasn't business partner of that guy who died. And I asked if I can lie in my letter to the bank.
Waiting for an answer now. Will post whenever we have some new developments...
If you guys have any good ideas how to get this guy to keep trying to get him all my info and not to quit, please reply here.
He was looking for a stupid, so he got stupid. I will keep asking stupid questions until he finally stops replying to my emails.
The heater is over
You know when your heater is over, when you lose with turned A high flush against rivered gut shot straight flush, after your set of Aces on flop is being cracked by runner runner straight, when you reraise w pocket kings 7 times and all 7 times you lose against A rag in separate tourneys, after you are being called by KK all in w A10 in the hands on flopped A59 board just to be flushed away by runner runner flush. And this call was for basically all guys chips w only one extra guy left in the tourney. So, instead of 1st, you bust out third. You know the heater is over, when you are so confused what else you can do, other than simply stop playing, bcs your 90%-10% would not hold 9 out of 10 times.
Hopefully next week will be different story.
Oh well. That's poker. After another sick week you simply go to read "Poker Mindset" for a 5th time. Nah, I didn't read it again, but I think I have to.
I hate poker.
Hell no, I freaking love it. Next week will be much better. Here I come bitches
March 18, 2010
March 17, 2010
Do you get rakeback on Merge?
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You can download PDC and Carbonpoker by clicking right side banners on this blog.
If you have any questions, please contact me, I will be glad to help you out.
March 16, 2010
Digging into odds vs Ranges using pokerstove.com
I will be posting some of those over here.
My month/year is starting off a little slow so ive been trying to get back to the basics, one of the ways that I do this is analyze hands that im in with versus the range of my opponents. Some free software you should have and should download if dont have it is www.pokerstove.com.
At first glance, this looks basic and youll be like, well, how could I use this in a real world situation. Granted, alot of what this software does is give you detailed information, in hindsite. Well... that doesnt do you any good in the middle of a tourney. But.. what it can do is teach you, you also can make some charts to help yourself know the strength of your hand in real-time or use the model I designed below.
I use 4 different models of ranges, you should goto pokerstove and type in these percentages to see the hand ranges I am discussing.
A This is general range of player either limping or opening a pot, in pokerstove, it consists of approx the top 32.9% of all hands
B Loose raising range -- this could be used by first player entering pot from mid- late position in a 8-10 handed game, this range consists of approx the top 20.4% of all hands
C Early position raising hands, this range is for an early position raise in a 8-10 man game, primarily I am talking about tournaments with approx 20-30x blind structure, this range consists of approx the top 12.4% of all hands
D Lastly is your tight range, this range will usually be a reraise, all in shove, or bubble playable hand vs a raise, this range consists of approx the top 4.2% of all hands.
Now.. what you should do is start to look at hands that you could have and how would they play against these ranges. Your next step in a tourney when entering a pot, raising into a pot, reraising or moving all in versus an opponent is trying to put them on one of these 4 ranges of hands. You then should be analyzing how they play to give you a better idea of what ranges they already play and then determine the situation in the game and which they might be on. Then, you analyze your hand strength based on that range. The idea is to try to get your money in with the best of most times.. You cant always win, but if you're consistently getting your money in with the best of it, youll win alot more. Ill give some samples below and then you can go on and do your own.
opponents projected range-> A 32.9% B 20.4% C 12.4% D 4.2%
78suited * 37.9% 36.7% 34.8% 27.7%
55 49.1% 45.7% 42.7% 31.5%
1010 64.4% 55.2% 54.2% 41.2%
A6 ** 47.3% 42.7% 37.2% 27.1%
AJ 59.6% 55.57 48.7% 31.2%
KQ 52.9% 49.4% 43.1% 31.2%
AQ 61.9% 58.9% 54.1% 34.2%
AK 64.7% 62.5% 59.9% 43.8%
AA 84.9% 84.5% 84.6% 82.8%
* includes other suited connectors from 2-3s to 9-10suited
** would also include other A-rag hands like A2-A8
Try to put this to use when you're looking at your hand in different areas of the tourney and wondering where you are vs other players in the hand. This will help you play "theoretically" better poker, what I mean by that is playing your hand perfectly as if you knew what the other player was holding. PART 2 ---------------------------------------------------
HAving a conversation about this with a buddy and I came up with some more scenarios...
Lets say youre in a tourney... youre either huge stacked or maybe pretty shortacked and you need to gamble to tripleup to get back in for a run... So a mid position raisers goes all in, we will give him the B range of 20.4% of the best hands.. so youre on the small blind, all of the sudden the button goes all in also for the same chips.. We assume he has a better hand range and we will give him a range of C the top 12.4% of hands. You could either have a small, stack wanting to triple, medium stack in which case youre going to have to consider this calling option alot more carefully, or possibly have them both covered by 3-1, in which case you might consider calling to knock them both out. S0.. we will run the same hands above, but we will check our equity vs both of these opponents with the same group of hands.
Your pot equity in a 3 handed all-in vs a B level estimated range and a C level estimated range with the following hands...
So youre over 50% chance to lose the hand in the sitation with all of these but AA, but youre also 26% to win the hand with even a suited connector.. worth the consideration in some situations. 78s 26.9%
55 29.5%
1010 38.4%
A6 23.7%
AJ 32.2% AQ 36.8%
AK 41.9%
AA 73.6%
Knowledge is power, odds and what you know and how you use them are a huge part of this game, consider them carefully in your decision making.
You should consider printing this out so you start to understand your equity vs different ranges of hands, and players. Very good stuff if i dont say so myself.
chuck
wizrdmickey
wizardmickey33 yahoo IM
@wizardmickey twitter
March 15, 2010
Some pictures from Chicago Poker Classic
1. Andy044
2. Erniukas1988
3. Some bum who thinks that online poker sucks and doesn't play online at all.
4. Sliekas
5. Escobar
6. LTUFlawless
7. LTUCigonas
8. Nidijus13
9. ACDC47
2. Escobar
3. Sliekas
4. LTUFlawless
5. ACDC47
6. Nidijus
Intro to wizardmickey poker
I was honored when flawless invited me to add some blogs to his site. Before you read mine, I would suggest reading all of his, 5 times. He has such great skills that you should soak up everything he says first, hopefully I can add some things to his base that might open up your thinking to some new ideas.
With that said, I will be posting some of my older posts, last 6 months anyway, and then writing some new ones periodically. I enjoy sharing thoughts, it helps me gets my head around some new ideas. I am a combination of a math and feel player and I think that that mix works well so I try to write about both.
The first thing I want to write here is like a flash card for beginners, if you don't know these odds by heart, then don't do anything else until you learn them all this is your base of knowledge.
More soon:
(odds by pokerstove.com, if you don't have it, I recommend download it for free, I use it alot and I write about pokerstove hand analysis alot)
AA
KK 18% overpair vs underpair
AK
KQ 26% dominated over
AK
QJ 36% 2 overs
AJ
QK 41% one over one under
AQ
KJ 38% one over one in between
AK 44% 2 overs vs high pair
AK 48% two overs vs small pair
22
AA
78 suited 23% over pair vs suited connectors
Wizrdmickey - Player name on Merge poker network
wizardmickey33 yahoo IM
@wizardmickey - Twitter
Please welcome wizrdmickey
I was looking for a person who would be interesting to read and would be great poker player himself. Finally found one. I'm glad wizrdmickey agreed to contribute to my blog with his experience. I have read some articles he has posted on reefer poker blog and I am sure you guys will like his point of view. He has some great articles and I guess we will see some poker strategy by him in near future on this blog.
Short about wizrdmickey. He is not only one of the top guys on merge, but one of the nicest guys I have played against... I think he is coaching poker and has a few students. So, his tips will be awesome addition to the blog. Don't miss his posts :)
Ok, I will stop typing and I will let wizrdmickey to introduce himself
46th Deepstack win
In my home league tourney was 3rd. Countless times 3rd. Still first on Leader board.
I did win one 3 outer though. QK vs QQ. Caught two out of 3 Kings in the deck. :) However, last hand lost w A10 vs KK. Flop A95. Guy called all in on flop and caught runner runner flush. Sick stuff.
March 11, 2010
45th Deepstack win
Chopped w Resteppa. He's a good guy and good player. On top of that had to run to my basketball practice, so it worked out great for us both.
Wasn't to easy though to get there. Won very important flip w AKs vs QQ late in the game. And caught a king on turn with AK in hands flop 56K. Goldenbear had two pair 56 on flop... That wasn't for all my chips, but obviously was biggest and most important pot of the game.
March 10, 2010
Quote of the day
March 9, 2010
March 8, 2010
43rd Deepstack win
Won Deepstack and made to 7th place in Sunday GTD. In sunday millions made to 800 smth...Not a bad Sunday at all...
Also posted a picture of Sunday GTD tourney. Late in the tourney I thought I had Daduh wrapped up and he thought he had me.
all we had just same hand- AA vs AA. So, basically we chopped the blinds
Chicago Poker Classic Recap
Good stuff- won satellite tourneys to every single event I played. Even to Main Event.
Bad Stuff, even though I was freerolling in each event, I didn't cash in any of them. Closest one- 4 away from money in Main Event. Deep stack events are the best for me and I proved it to myself again.
Event 1. Busted out preflop w 1010 vs 66. Flop hits 734. Turn 5 completing his gut shot straight, river blank Ace.
Event 2. AK vs 99. Lost a flip and couldn't recover from that one. That's what happens in tourneys when you start playing with low stacks... You either double time a few times and you can play your normal aggressive game or you lose a flip and you're done.
Event 4. (6 max) Lost w JJ against flush and gut shot straight draw. This was one of better events for me, since it suites my style. Made a great call, but it didn't work out too well.
I had pretty agressive image at the table. So, people started calling my raises more often. On button I wake up w JJ. Raise same standard raise I was raising all day. Big blinds calls, since it's tough to put me on a good hand. Flop 106Q rainbow. He checks, I bet 2/3 of the pot. He calls. Turn Q of spades. Flush draw on table. He checks, I bet, he insta reraises me all in. Tank time. After thinking for couple minutes about what he might have and taking into consideration what was happening prior this hand, I simply think he is making a move with worst case scenario- flush draw. I tell him I can beat flush draw and push my chips into middle. Good call, he says and shows 97 of spades. Gut shot and flush draw. Gotta dodge 11 outs with one card to come.
River 8 of diamonds. Straight. He mumbles, "great call, bad luck" and scoops the pot. No shit, Sherlock.
Skipped some of events and came back only for Main Event satellite. 20 places got seats, I busted out 26th I think. Was pretty short and pushed all in w J10s and ran into sb KK.
I was totally exhausted I decided not to wait 2 more hours until the last sat started. On top of that, I figured that $300 in my pocket won't help me at all in $200 buy in tourney w $100 rebuys. Walking through casino towards exit, I had to pass roulette table, so I figured if I double up my 300 hundos, I will play in last tourney.
Put my 3 black chips on black and didn't even look at the wheel. Wasn't even sure if I wanted to win, since was so tired and I knew I would play in the main Event anyway, so I wanted to get some rest. Sure enough, when yo don't really want it, you will hit. I doubled to $600 and went back upstairs to register.
Long story short, 12 places got paid in this tourney and i was just cruising with my large stack. With 13 ppl left I was folding without even looking at the cards. There were 3 really short stacks and I didn't want to get in any trouble against some shmuck who wants to get all the chisp at the table. Funny thing, one guy at the table was still raising and bluffing every hand, like it did matter... We had 7 ppl at the table with one short and other table had 6. So our orbit was was longer, since we were playing hand for hand. Finally their shortest stack went all in and like 4 ppl called. They checked it down and the poor lady was out on bubble.
Finished Satellite at 4 am. So, basically I got 4-5 hours of sleep. Came back at 11 am and had to sit 14.5 hours. Made to day two, with 65 ppl left.
Day two was so much better. I was much fresher and felt that my game was much better than the day before. However, lost good chunk of chips w 88 vs KK on rag flop. Doubled short stack and became short stack myself.
Was still in ok shape with around 60 K w 1,5-3K blinds. Guy tried to steal my blinds and I woke up with A10s on BB. He was pretty aggressive and I know he was attacking short stack, so didn't even think too long. All in.
Guy thought for good 5 minutes, but finally called. Showed A8. Nice. Only 3 outs. yeah right. Flop of course 8. Turn gave me flush draw, but river blank.
Out 31st. 27 got paid. Maybe next year.
Missed MTT Leaderboard final. Argh
Main Event is over
Sucks.
A10s vs A8 preflop. Guy was stealing my blind and I pushed. Blinds 1,500-3000. He raised to 8000. I pushed my 55K and after doing some thinking he called 1/3 of his stack, since he had 150 K before the hand started.
Of course flop hits 8. On turn I picked up a flush draw, however river blank.
2 years in the row 4 away from money. Last year 14 got paid, I was 18th. Now 27 get paid, I’m 31st. How sick is that.
I hate poker. :)
March 6, 2010
Made to day 2 in Main Event
Ok, back home. Played till 3 am, made to day two.
Out of 235 players 65 left.
Chip stack is below average, however, it’s not too short. Last hand lost 15K w AK s against some shmucks 68, since he would think I was stealing the pot…
I think 27 get paid.
Tomorrow going back at 2 pm.
Tired as hell. Had only few hours of sleep and had to play for 15 hourse. Crazy stuff. So happy to get back to bed...
March 5, 2010
Quick update on Main Event
Longer update after I get home. Tournament starts in an hour.
Wish me luck
March 4, 2010
Get a free share to WSOP Event #54
I will start with a huge 24,500 chips stack, since I have accumulated my unique stack over the month of February in Olympic Events. So, there is pretty good chance I will at least cash in this tourney.
You are welcome.
March 2, 2010
Chicago Poker Classic Event 2
Nothing interesting was going on, just got busted w AK vs 99. Well not really busted, but crippled really bad and left with like 3-4 big blinds. Comeback was in the works, but after doubling up with some rags, finally got beat by AQ against some other rags...Anyway the tournament was ok, some friend of mine made into the money.
Gotta win flips in order to win tourneys. However, that wasn't happening to me yesterday...
Will play in some other Events though. Maybe will have some better luck there
